Create Suspenseful “Split” Horror Titles in After Effects

first_imgLearn how to design and animate split horror titles with custom shading and textures, inspired by M. Night Shyamalan’s Split.Does your video project require a serious suspense or horror feel? Creating custom horror titles can sometimes be a struggle — after all, there are a million ways to go about it.In this After Effects tutorial, we’ll take a look at recreating the main title from M. Night Shyamalan’s new movie, Split. This tutorial covers basic principles of suspense design like applying textures, splitting text, and adding shadows to separate the cuts.Image: James McAvoy in M. Night Shyamalan’s Split via UniversalSuspenseful/horror titles follow a general philosophy of design — they need to be eerie and unsettling to your audience. The titles should represent what your story or message is about. The movie Split is based on an antagonizing multiple personality villain who abducts three women.The title design clearly represents the antagonist (or, really, in Split’s case, antagonists) and the theme of split personalities through the split-shadowed ridges within the text. Furthermore, the title design indicates the genre of the film. You’ll see in our tutorial how to grab the audiences attention with your title by adding a touch of distortion to the beginning of the animation in order to create a jarring offset.Here’s a quick preview of the final horror title result:Here’s what you’ll take away from this exciting Split Horror Text After Effects tutorial:How to design textured titlesCreate shadow shading for depthCreate a replaceable text workflowDistort and split textCreate an awesome title animation Download the Free Project FileDOWNLOAD FREE ‘SPLIT’ TITLES PROJECT FILECreating horror titles can lead to a road of endless possibilities. Keep in mind that titles should always complement your story, represent your genre, and set the mood of your product. So have fun and be sure to experiment with these concepts to create your own unique horror/suspense titles.last_img read more

Son Heung-min says ‘sorry’ to Tottenham for taking break for Asian Games 2018

first_imgTottenham Hotspur’s South Korean striker Son Heung-min is all set to represent his country at the upcoming Asian Games 2018 in Jakarta, Indonesia but also felt sorry about leaving his club early on in the Premier League season.Son, who was recently handed a new five-year contract with Tottenham, is one of the three overage players to be named in the South Korean squad or the Asian Games football tournament, starting August 14.For the Asian Games, Tottenham have agreed to release Son after their opening Premier League match at Newcastle United on August 11.”I feel sorry because Tottenham is my team and I feel very sorry to be leaving my teammates,” Son was quoted as saying by ESPNFC.”I am playing for my country and that is also important, but honestly I feel very sorry about that. That is what I feel,” Son said.”We can talk about (the national service) afterwards. We haven’t won it already. We are going there to win something, and winning trophies for my country is always good. I don’t travel there for nothing.”Son was South Korea’s star player at the recently-concluded FIFA World Cup 2018 in Russia but they failed to advance from their group that consisted of Sweden, Mexico and Germany.South Korea lost their opening two matches to Sweden and Mexico but pulled off an upset of the ages by knocking out Germany of the tournament with 2-0 win. However, that could not save their fate in the World Cup.Son and his teammates would want to erase the pain of that early World Cup exit by winning gold at the Games in Indonesia.advertisement”It was disappointing but we finished well against Germany,” said Son.”Our country was happy because they were No.1 in the FIFA rankings and the defending World Cup champions. For me, the tournament was disappointing because I always expect more than the group stage. I wanted to stay longer than we did. But it was a good experience to play at the World Cup and I look forward to playing in another four years.”Also read – Son Heung-min: South Korean star’s shades of tears at World Cup 2018When questioned about teammate and World Cup’s Golden Boot winner Harry Kane, Son said: “Harry Kane is one of the best strikers in the world. That is why he has won the Golden Boot twice in the Premier League and once at his first World Cup.”He deserved it as well because he worked really hard. He will come back with a lot of confidence and I think he can win another Golden Boot.”(With IANS inputs)last_img read more

Stoger: Fan protest would be cheap excuse

first_imgBorussia Dortmund Stoger refuses to use protest as ‘cheap excuse’ as 27,000 Dortmund fans boycott Monday game Jamie Smith 18:55 2/27/18 FacebookTwitterRedditcopy Comments(0) Borussia Dortmund Augsburg fan protest Getty Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg Augsburg Kevin Danso’s equaliser earned Augsburg a draw at Signal Iduna Park, leaving Borussia Dortmund coach Peter Stoger frustrated with his side. Peter Stoger refused to blame supporter protests for Borussia Dortmund’s 1-1 home draw with Augsburg that ended a three-match winning streak in the Bundesliga.Marco Reus scored after 16 minutes to put Dortmund on track for a fourth successive Bundesliga win that would have seen Stoger’s men close to 17 points within leaders Bayern Munich.But in front of a sparsely-populated Signal Iduna Park, with over 27,000 fans boycotting a first Monday night game in 28 years, Kevin Danso struck to secure a point for Augsburg. Article continues below Editors’ Picks Lyon treble & England heartbreak: The full story behind Lucy Bronze’s dramatic 2019 Liverpool v Man City is now the league’s biggest rivalry and the bitterness is growing Megan Rapinoe: Born & brilliant in the U.S.A. A Liverpool legend in the making: Behind Virgil van Dijk’s remarkable rise to world’s best player While the famous Yellow Wall was unusually quiet, with fans displaying their opposition to television coverage dictating Dortmund’s schedule, Stoger did not think unrest off the field had an impact on a flat performance from his side.”I did not feel that everyone wanted to do everything to make it better at the front and back,” Stoger told a post-match news conference. “It certainly wasn’t the backdrop. That would be a cheap excuse.”It’s not understandable to me. It would have been much easier with a second goal. I didn’t like it.”We do not demand anything that the players cannot bring. We wish, however, that we should assume more responsibility.”There is always one or another explanation, but you do not necessarily have to use it.”I’m not satisfied with the game. It was my impression that we only wanted to hold the lead.”Stoger’s frustration was echoed by Mario Gotze, who cited a lack of attacking ambition from Dortmund as one of the reasons for a below-par display.Mario Gotze Borussia Dortmund“The result is just very annoying,” Gotze told Eurosport. “If you look at the gameplay, that should not happen to us.”Especially here at home, against Augsburg, with the chance to get some clear space from the competition. It would be nice if I could explain that so quickly.”We have made too little of our possession of the ball, have not come close enough to finish the goal, have offered too little on the wings.”Especially in the last third and in pressing this is not as successful as we had imagined. That was not satisfactory. Definitely not.”Dortmund disappointed against Augsburg in front of a crowd of 54,300 spectators.Signal Iduna Park is capable of holding over 81,000, with the ‘Yellow Wall’ South Stand housing 24,500.Those who did attend Monday’s game made their feelings known from the terraces, with a banner unfurled which read: “For fan-fair kickoff times! No to Monday games!”last_img read more

16 days agoChelsea striker Tammy Abraham: Always England for me

first_imgChelsea striker Tammy Abraham: Always England for meby Paul Vegas16 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveChelsea striker Tammy Abraham insists it was always his “dream” to play for England.He was courted by the Nigerian FA but now has his sights set on a long and successful career with England.Abraham, who qualified for Nigeria through his father, explained: “For me, it’s always nice to be wanted by two nations – it clearly means you’re doing something well.“At the back of my head, I’ve always wanted to play for England. I was born and have grown up in England.“My dream was always to play for England. I love both nations but my head was just screwed on with England.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your saylast_img

Akron Busted Out A ‘Turnover Pencil’ Celebration During Today’s Game

first_img Just when you thought you’ve seen it all …Now you’ve seen the turnover … pencil? ✏️ pic.twitter.com/x5mejIL7ID— ESPN (@espn) September 7, 2019After intercepting the ball, the Akron player goes directly to the sideline and grabs the large pencil. He then stands up on the bench and holds the pencil over his head in celebration. The player then shows the camera the pencil which appears to have writing on it, but it’s hard to make out what it says.We must inform you Akron has a turnover pencil. pic.twitter.com/8B29gJRpCr— Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 7, 2019What could the turnover prop stand for? Could there by symbolic meaning in regards to the eraser? Or maybe “rewriting history”?Either way, there’s a mixed reaction from college football fans across the country. Some love the simplistic and fun prop. Others are questioning the use of it in the first place.What are you thoughts? Is the turnover pencil the best celebratory prop in college football? Akron busts out the turnover pencil.Celebratory props are becoming more and more popular with each passing college football season.First, Miami introduced the glamorous turnover chain for players to wear after forcing a turnover. Many similar props followed. Now, in 2019, we have a new prop going viral on social media. And the team utilizing it isn’t a team you’d expect.Against the UAB Blazers, the Akron Zips introduced the turnover pencil. Yes, the turnover pencil. You read that correctly.But the turnover pencil isn’t just your standard 7.5 inch writing utensil. The prop is several feet in length.last_img read more

Hapag-Lloyd Invests Big in Reefer Containers

first_imgzoom German liner company Hapag-Lloyd has ordered 6,000 (12,000 TEU) of the latest generation of reefer containers, the largest reefer order in Hapag-Lloyd’s history.“We operate a state-of-the-art reefer fleet that is the fourth-largest in the world. With the new reefers, we are expanding our leading position even further in this specialised business with its specific demands and will thus benefit from the growing reefer market,” says Rolf Habben Jansen, Chief Executive Officer of Hapag-Lloyd AG.“With our enhanced reefer fleet, we are ideally positioned for the Latin American trade, which is an important part of the reefer business – right on time for the opening of the expanded Panama Canal next year.”In April this year, Hapag-Lloyd had already ordered five new 10,500 TEU ships with a high number of slots for reefers. Each of these ships can accommodate up to 2,100 reefers.The company said that the newbuildings would be used primarily on trades to and from South America, as this region is one of the strongest reefer markets in the world. The new reefers are to be gradually integrated into the container fleet, starting in the coming weeks, the announcement read.“With the new reefers, we will be offering our customers access to state-of-the-art equipment and together with our technical and operational expertise, we will ensure that the most demanding cooled cargo reaches its destination safely. Our customers value our reliability and the efficiency of our processes,” says Anthony J. Firmin, Chief Operating Officer of Hapag-Lloyd.Hapag-Lloyd uses reefers to transport temperature-sensitive cargo such as fruits, vegetables and pharmaceutical products as well as meat and fish.last_img read more

Make the Right Call This Season

first_imgDrivers pulled over at police roadside checkpoints this holiday season could be facing time — phone time, that is. Police will give away 20,000 free Aliant long distance phone cards as part of a campaign to keep impaired drivers off the road. The 20-minute Aliant phone cards are part of Operation Christmas, a program to combat impaired driving organized by police and Nova Scotia’s Road Safety Advisory Committee, and sponsored by the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation (NSLC) and Aliant. It’s hoped people will use the cards to call for a drive if they are drinking. “Impaired drivers are being stopped and taken off the road at these sobriety checkpoints, and you can bet that’s saving lives,” said Transportation and Public Works Minister Ron Russell. “Operation Christmas reminds us not to drink and drive and helps make our roads safer.” Law enforcement agencies from across Nova Scotia set up checkpoints in Sydney today, Dec. 1, to launch Operation Christmas, the annual campaign to reduce impaired driving during the holiday season. “This year’s launch of Operation Christmas demonstrates the full support and commitment of all Nova Scotia police agencies,” said Cape Breton Regional Police Chief Edgar MacLeod. “Together with our partners, our officers are determined to keep our communities safe by reducing incidents of impaired driving. We urge all citizens to join us by making the right call this season.” The NSLC and Aliant are supplying the 20,000 free phone cards for police to hand out to drivers at the Operation Christmas checkpoints. “It’s all about making the right choices. During the holidays, we want to take every opportunity to remind our customers to plan ahead to get home safely,” said Carrie Cussons, acting NSLC president. “We’re pleased to partner with organizations that are committed, as Aliant is, to making Nova Scotia a safer place to live and work,” said Sudanna MacDonald, Aliant regional manager for Cape Breton. “The calling cards are reminders to drivers who drink to find alternate ways to get home safely during the holiday season.” Over the first 11 months of 2005 there were 59 fatalities on Nova Scotia roads; about one in every four deaths on the road involved alcohol-impaired drivers. Impaired driving is one of the leading contributing factors in fatal and serious collisions in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia’s road safety partners are working toward making our roads the safest in the world by the year 2010. The partners are guided by Road Safety Vision 2010, a national plan to reduce the number of road users killed and seriously injured. For more information on the Vision, visit the website at www.tc.gc.ca/roadsafety/vision . Nova Scotia’s road safety advisory committee helps government develop road safety priorities and programs. The committee includes the provincial departments of Transportation and Public Works and Justice; Nova Scotia Health Promotion; Emergency Health Services; the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board; every police agency in the province; the Nova Scotia Safety Council; and the Insurance Bureau of Canada.last_img read more

Province Invests in New Building to Support LArche Community

first_imgGovernment is investing $225,000 towards a building project by L’Arche at Iron Mines, Inverness Co. that will create an accessible setting for Nova Scotians with disabilities to sell produce, artwork and crafts. “This funding will help more Nova Scotians with disabilities to gather, to meet, to perform. Our Culture Action Plan launched this year supports inclusion and creating spaces where creativity can thrive for all Nova Scotians,” said Acadian Affairs and Francophonie Minister Michel Samson on behalf of Communities, Culture and Heritage Minister Tony Ince and Community Services Minister Joanne Bernard. “This funding will help more Nova Scotians with disabilities build more inclusive lives within the community.” The 3,800 square foot space, known as The Gathering Place, will allow L’Arche to move from an aging wood structure and host functions in a barrier-free area. “Having a spacious, fully accessible hall for meetings, concerts, plays, and extensive training and formation programs will make a huge difference for L’Arche Cape Breton and the wider community,” said community leader Mukthar Limpao. “It helps us open people’s hearts to the gifts of men and women with intellectual disabilities and to continue to foster a culture of growth and learning beyond the L’Arche community.” The centre will welcome other agencies that support people with disabilities and is centrally located so that people will not have to drive long distances to rented facilities for events. L’Arche Cape Breton was founded in 1983. It is a community where men and women with intellectual disabilities can work together in a more humane society. The provincial contribution to this project is in addition to funds raised by the Ark Community Initiatives Society and a federal contribution.last_img read more

Vancouver rules for shortterm rentals to ease citys vacancy rate mayor

first_imgVANCOUVER – The city of Vancouver is moving to legalize short-term rental accommodation like Airbnb but operators will only be able to advertise their principal residence.Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson said Wednesday that new regulations to be enacted next week are designed to protect and free up rental housing in response to a critically low vacancy rate.“The goal of the city is to restore some of our long-term rental and take a balanced approach, making sure we are protecting rental stock at the same time that we’re enabling supplemental income for people who are using Airbnb and other short-term rental platforms,” he said.There are roughly 6,600 short-term rentals posted online, and more than 80 per cent will remain legal under the program, city officials said.Operators will be required to apply for a business licence by Sept. 1 and include that number in their listing, which Airbnb has agreed to make as a requirement on its platform.Secondary suites can only be listed on the platform by a long-term resident of the unit, and city staff say there are about 1,000 units currently listed that are not an operator’s primary home.Robertson said most of those units should go back on the rental market or be subject to a $1,000 a day fine as of Sept. 1.Airbnb spokeswoman Alex Dagg said the agreement reached with the city, which also requires the company to share quarterly data and user contact information, is the first of its kind in Canada. She said other jurisdictions globally have implemented a similar partnership.“I’m always reminded how progressive the Vancouver community is,” she said. “This agreement today is an important step to making home sharing easier while giving the city the tools it needs for enforcement.”She said the information being given to the city will help enforce the new regulations, while allowing users to continue to list their homes with ease.The city’s general manager of development, Kaye Krishna, said about 88 per cent of all online short-term rental listings are posted on Airbnb.Other platforms are in negotiations with the city, Krishna said. The Expedia Group, which owns the platforms VRBO and HomeAway, has agreed to educate users on the new regulations and encourage them to obtain licences, she said.The cost of the licence is $49 annually, and operators must have permission from their landlord or condo board and adhere to fire and safety standards.The city has set up an online application, which Krishna said takes only minutes to complete, that will launch next week.The city has hired bylaw enforcement officers to monitor violations and issue tickets.“Housing here is for homes first and be used as a business after that and be taxed as a business appropriately,” Robertson said.The new regulations, paired with the city’s recent empty-home tax, are “tools that can boost the supply of long-term rental, and again, make sure we are getting the best use of our housing stock across the city,” he said.The city’s vacancy rate is currently at 0.8 per cent, Robertson said.—Follow @Givetash on Twitter.last_img read more

A Race Against Time West Africa Fears Further Outbreaks of Ebola

Casablanca – Since the deadly Ebola disease first appeared in late 2013 in West Africa, it has continued to spread throughout Africa.Last week, team leader, Bart Jansesens of the organization, ‘Doctors without Borders’ stated that the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was “completely out of control.” The rare virus causes painful bleeding inside and outside the body as well as high fever, difficulty breathing, and rashes.According to the World Health Organization, 467 people have already lost their lives as a result of this virus. There are also other 759 reported cases of infection. For now, no licensed vaccine for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is available. Several vaccines are being tested, but none are available yet for clinical treatment. Since the deadly disease first appeared in late 2013 in West Africa, it has spread rapidly. To date, outbreaks have occurred in the three countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. The risk of it spreading to other areas is very high, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).The deadly disease causes huge waves of refugees to flee their cities every day, in order to escape from the outbreak. The disease is transmitted through blood and body fluids of infected animals and people and raises fear and panic among the residents. So they would rather run away from the scourge, rather than face it.Isata Sanaoh, one refugee was quoted by the German News channel, RTL as saying: “I ran away from home because of Ebola. A lot of people have died there, including many in my family.” Yet, many refugees unwittingly carry the virus to other parts of the country and controlling the spread of the disease is not in sight.The World Health Organization has called for more doctors to come help prevent the spread. But the lack of doctors is not the only issue. People from West Africa tend to distrust foreigners. Most of them want to take care of themselves at home, which exacerbates the problem because family members or friends become infected from caring for the sick.For the residents of the affected regions, the ebola virus is not just a disease, but an evil curse. People are convinced that Western medicine is powerless. So, the race against time to save lives is a continuous back and forth between clarification of facts and focusing on stopping the spread of the disease.Unfortunately, the governments of West Africa have not invested in their health institutions over the last years. The result is that many citizens are the victims of their own country’s recklessness.On the other hand, authorities have banned the sale and consumption of wild animals in Guiana. Monkeys, bats and snakes are locally considered delicacies, but are also potential carriers of the virus.Those who help fight against the deadly virus face the skepticism of the local population. This is an extremely dangerous conflict situation that costs a lot of lives of more and more people.Many people around the world wonder whether there could be an outbreak in their own countries. In fact, infected travelers can easily spread the disease. However, airline crews are trained to spot the symptoms, so the chances of travelers spreading the virus are being minimized.West Africa is experiencing the worst disease outbreak in its history. Many people have already lost their lives, and desperation has become part of their daily agenda.Although, there is no effective treatment yet, the WHO is focusing on eradicating all the origins and sources of Ebola by cleaning and disinfecting the affected areas.© Morocco World News. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, rewritten or redistributed read more

Kosovo status talks to enter new highlevel political phase UN envoy says

Briefing the Council behind closed doors, Martti Ahtisaari, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Kosovo’s future status process, said he intends to take the process, begun in February, from technical talks to a new high-level political phase, to be held this month in Vienna, UN spokesman Marie Okabe told reporters in New York. During the new phase, teams from both sides will be invited to present their positions on status, she added. At a closed meeting this morning, the Security Council heard from Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, while in the afternoon, Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu briefed Council members. Kosovo, an Albanian-majority Serbian province, has been run by the UN since Western forces drove out Yugoslav troops in 1999 amid ethnic fighting. Mr. Ahtisaari’s status dialogue between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs has been held about twice monthly since it began in February. read more

Valeant faces new legal challenges with investigations into eye care business

Valeant faces new legal challenges with investigations into eye care business by Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press Posted Oct 27, 2015 1:20 pm MDT Last Updated Oct 27, 2015 at 4:40 pm MDT AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email MONTREAL – Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which has been under the gun over its relationship with specialty pharmacies and price hikes on its heart medications, is facing new legal challenges as U.S. investigators look into the embattled company’s growing eye care business.Valeant disclosed Monday that it is subject to separate investigations launched by the Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department.The FTC has requested information and documentation related to its “non-public investigation” of Valeant’s acquisition of Paragon Vision Sciences in May, the Laval, Que.-based company said in a regulatory filing about its third-quarter results.Valeant also said the Justice Department has issued it a subpoena as part of a criminal investigation into Bausch & Lomb’s payment to medical professionals related to its surgical products Crystalens IOL and Victus femtosecond laser platform. Valeant said it is co-operating with the investigation into possible violations of federal health-care laws.The Department of Justice’s civil division and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania are also probing possible false claims on Medicaid pricing made by Biovail, Valeant’s previous company, the company added in its SEC filing.Valeant couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. But Jan Svochak, the president of the Contact Lens Manufacturers Association in the U.S., said he was interviewed by investigators with the FTC as part of their probe.Svochak said in an interview Tuesday that Valeant is jacking up manufacturing costs, threatening the survival of small makers of rigid gas permeable contact lenses.“My raw material prices have effectively doubled,” said Svochak, who is also president of Texas-based Tru-Form Optics, a contact lens manufacturer. “It’s not good for me, my employees, my customers, my bottom line (and) puts companies like us at risk.”Valeant controls 85 to 90 per cent of the supply chain for gas permeable lenses in the U.S., he said, adding that gas permeable lenses are 10 per cent of the overall contact lens market and offer the “last resort” for many patients who can’t wear soft lenses.The owner of Quebec’s Blanchard Laboratories said price increases will eventually be passed on to consumers.“We have no choice,” Jean Blanchard said in an interview.Blanchard said contact lens makers still face hefty cost increases even though Valeant backed down plans to double prices after getting negative feedback from thousands of practitioners. He said the company reverted to its original increase, ranging between six and 30 per cent.However, he said Valeant still plans to remove the middleman, including labs that make costly Ortho-K (orthokeratology) lenses, a growing market Valeant has a near monopoly on to treat severe eye problems.“They make good products, it’s just the approach that was taken,” he said of Valeant’s aggressive moves on pricing.Withering scrutiny of Valeant’s pricing strategy and its use of specialty pharmaceutical companies has resulted in a deep drop in its share price.In a report last week, short-selling firm Citron Research alleged that Valeant set up a network of phantom pharmacies to fool auditors — allegations that CEO Michael Pearson said are “completely untrue.”Follow @RossMarowits on Twitter. read more

Every NBA Teams Chance Of Winning A Title By 2019

Does this underrate OKC? Yeah, probably. As I’ve said, our simple method is liable to underrate teams dealing with injury problems. The Thunder have played pretty well since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have returned to the lineup. But two points to consider.First, when a team has the talent the Thunder do, there’s no time like the present to win a title. But the Thunder are unlikely to win the championship this year. They’d be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the playoffs started today, and while Hollinger’s method may underrate them, there’s a big gap between the Thunder and the top seven seeds. Even if they improve to (for instance) the No. 6 seed, they’ll probably have to win four playoff series as the road team to win the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. Not. Easy.Second, Durant is a superstar by any definition, but the degree of superstardom matters. If Durant is the star Sirius, as he was last season, shining brighter than anyone else in the NBA firmament, the Thunder will always have a leg up on the rest of the league, other things held equal. If he’s merely “in the conversation” as the league’s best player, along with Curry, James, Chris Paul, James Harden and Davis, then the Thunder will perennially compete with Curry’s Warriors, James’s Cavs, Paul’s Clippers, Harden’s Rockets and Davis’s Pelicans — but not necessarily beat them.To be even more geeky about it, championship contention in the NBA is nonlinear function. Being a 56-win team instead of a 60-win team — because, say, Durant has become a half-step slower or more injury-prone — could matter a great deal.But how overjoyed Gotham would be if blue and orange stood for the Manhattan Thunder and not the Knicks! The Knicks, obviously, will not win the championship this season. And here’s how the model pegs their chances over the next four seasons. In 2015-16, they have a 0.3 percent of winning the title. In 2016-17, their chances are 0.6 percent. And then in the two subsequent seasons, 0.9 percent and 1.0 percent. Overall, there’s about a 3 percent chance the Knicks will win the NBA title in the next five years.Three percent is not zero percent, so naturally you’ll find the exception to the rule if you dig in deep enough. The 2007-08 Miami Heat, who finished at 15-67, are the most favorable precedent. Their situation wasn’t entirely different from the Knicks’; in a down season, their roster featured one star (Dwyane Wade) and a lot of aging and overpriced “talent” around him. Three seasons later, they signed LeBron James, and in 2011-12 they won the NBA title.So, maybe the Knicks will luck into Jahlil Okafor in next year’s draft. And maybe Durant signs with them two years from now, and maybe Anthony has a gentle decline. I’m telling you there’s a chance, Knicks fans! It’s just not bloody likely.The Knicks, however, do not quite have the worst projection in the league; instead that belongs to the 76ers, whose title chances are lower still.If your eyes are on the long-term, wouldn’t you rather be in a tanking rebuilding situation like Philly than in the predicament of the Knicks or Lakers? Maybe, but the history of teams who have been as laughably bad as this year’s Sixers is not good. Since the ABA merger, 51 teams have finished with fewer than 20 wins in a 82-game season or the equivalent amount in a shortened season. How many of them won a championship in the next five years? Only one — the aforementioned 2007-08 Heat, whose situation was more analogous to that of the Lakers or Knicks than that faced by the 76ers.The thing about starting from a 15-win baseline is that you can add a 20-win megawatt superstar from the draft, and sign a 10-win free agent, and have another guy develop into a five-win talent … and still be a 50-win team, a No. 5 or 6 seed. It’s not clear there’s anyone on the Sixers’ roster who is a good bet to develop into a better-than-average NBA player. A team like the Detroit Pistons, who at least have Andre Drummond, is about twice as likely to develop into a championship contender, according to the model. The Pistons also face extremely long odds, but you’d rather have Drummond and a slightly inferior lottery position than the other way around. Tanking doesn’t pay, kids!But there are a lot of ways to be awful in the NBA, and only one team wins the title. Golden State is the best bet to be pouring the champagne soon. I can see Madison Square Garden from my Manhattan apartment. This year, the arena installed LED lights along the exterior columns of the building — blue, red and white for New York Rangers games; orange and blue for New York Knicks games. They outshine everything else along a drab stretch of Eighth Avenue. When the Knicks colors shine, I’m reminded that there’s a dreadful basketball team playing a few blocks from me.The Knicks are 5-22 on the year, on pace for their worst season in the not-exactly-glorious history of the franchise. But unlike a lot of bad teams, the Knicks are not yet in rebuilding mode. Their only players to have performed at an above-average level so far this season1According to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus are 30-year-old Carmelo Anthony, 32-year-old Amar’e Stoudemire and 37-year-old Pablo Prigioni. They have a few (not many) good players and a few (not many) young players, but there’s almost no overlap on the Venn diagram.Just how dire is the Knicks’ situation? Are they worse off than the Los Angeles Lakers? Than the Philadelphia 76ers, who very much are in rebuilding mode and are 2-22?Let’s take a longer view. What are the chances any of these franchises will field a championship-caliber team over the next five seasons (from this year through 2018-19)? On the flip side, which NBA franchise has the most reason to be optimistic about its future? Would you rather be the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Golden State Warriors? Would you rather be the Memphis Grizzlies, with a sterling record so far this season but no superstar, or the New Orleans Pelicans, who aren’t so good yet but have a potential world-beating talent in Anthony Davis?There have been some valiant attempts to answer such questions before (see ESPN’s NBA Future Power Rankings). Our method here will be simpler and more statistically driven. The idea is to project the number of NBA championships a franchise might expect to win over the next five seasons based on three easily quantifiable factors:How good is the team now?How old the team?How good is its best player?To be clear, we are not claiming these are the only things that matter. You’d probably want to give a team some extra credit if it’s run by a genius like Gregg Popovich. You’d probably want to dock it if it has traded away some of its future draft picks (as the Knicks have) or if its salary cap situation is poor. And our approach will not be so great at handling teams with injuries to star players. But simple models like these can be a useful tool for understanding how NBA franchises evolve.Some modestly technical bits follow. You can skip ahead a few paragraphs if you’re not sweating the small stuff.As I mentioned, our goal is to estimate the likelihood of a team winning an NBA championship over the next five seasons. The method won’t give much credit to a team for being just decent. Unlike in certain other sports, an NBA team almost never backs into a championship by being slightly above average and then getting lucky in the postseason. A 52-win team in the regular season will win the NBA championship only about 2 percent of the time; a 64-win team will win it something like half the time.More specifically, the model takes the form of a logistic regression analysis where the inputs are three factors I described above — age, overall team quality and the quality of its best player — and the output is the projected number of championships won.2More specifically, the model treats championships probabilistically based on regular-season win totals. For example, a 60-win team is treated as having about a 20 percent chance of winning the title based on the process described here — whether or not it did so. I believe this to be a more robust method than treating championships as binary outcomes; it has the effect of reducing the impact of postseason luck. I’ve used data from the ABA-NBA merger season of 1976-77 onward.To measure overall team quality, I’ve used the number of games a team won.3Win totals are prorated to 82 games in the event of seasons shortened by labor disputes. But when looking toward future seasons, a team’s most recent win-loss record isn’t all that matters; so does the distribution of its talent. The presence of an actual or potential superstar significantly improves its chances of winning championships.This shouldn’t be surprising. In the NBA’s economic structure, there are two types of players who routinely produce a high return on investment: young players (who often make far less than they would as free agents under the rookie salary scale) and superstar players (who are often underpaid because of the maximum salary). Teams built around superstars face downside risk; if the superstar leaves town or gets hurt, they’re screwed. But in the NBA, you’d rather take a high-risk, high-reward approach than settle for a No. 8 seed every year.Our measure of superstar talent is how a team’s top player rated according to the statistic “wins added,” which is described at more length here. Wins added is based on a combination of Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Neither metric is perfect (far from it), but because each can be computed from readily available “box score” statistics, they allow us to compare players and teams on a level playing field dating back to 1976-77.Having a younger team helps, of course, but it’s better to evaluate the age of a team’s best players rather than everyone on its roster. So, our calculation of a team’s average age is weighted based on wins added.4In the calculation, negative wins added totals are treated as zeros. This is important. The average New York Knick, weighted based on the number of minutes played this season, is about 28 years old. But the team’s better players are old; its average age is closer to 30 when weighted by wins added.There are a couple of further details in the footnotes,5The model also accounts for the number of teams in the league; it’s easier to win a title in a 23-team NBA than a 30-team NBA. I also calibrate the numbers such that the cumulative odds of a title win in any given season is one exactly among all teams in the league. There’s only one trophy to go around. but let’s see how this works in practice. Here’s how the 30 NBA teams ranked in future championship potential based on their statistics at the end of last season. We’ll run the numbers based on the current season’s data in a moment.At the end of last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder had the most hopeful situation in the league, projecting to win 0.8 championships over the next five years. This total includes cases where the Thunder would win multiple championships, so this is not quite the same as saying they had an 80 percent chance of winning at least one championship. (Titles in the NBA can come in bunches.)Still, this was a reasonably impressive figure; since 1976-77, only 12 teams had a better projection. The top one belonged to the Chicago Bulls going into the 1996-97 season. They projected to win 1.2 more championships to go with the four that Michael Jordan had won already; Jordan won two more in reality.But the NBA is a tough league. Some of the teams that projected almost as highly as Jordan’s Bulls never won a championship. The Cleveland Cavaliers projected to win about 1.2 championships over their next five seasons heading into the 2009-10 season — but LeBron James left, and they didn’t win any. (A championship in Cleveland this season now that James has returned would be one year too late to count within the five-year window.) Other teams appeared likely to follow one championship with more but failed to do so. The Philadelphia 76ers, coming off a 67-win championship season in 1982-83, projected to add another title to Julius Erving’s mantle but never did.Last season is old news, however. So, we’ve also come up with a projection that accounts for roster turnover and a team’s performance so far this year. This required a few modifications to our original model:Team win totals are projected based on John Hollinger’s playoff odds, which account for potential reversion to the mean.6For instance, the Knicks have a .185 winning percentage so far this year and are on pace to go 15-67. But they’ll probably improve on that at least a little bit, according to the Hollinger standings, which project them to finish with a 25-57 record instead.For individual players, wins added are projected based on a combination of a player’s performance so far this year and in recent past seasons.7For each player, I made a preseason projection based on his age and wins added over his past three NBA seasons, then averaged this with a projection based on his wins added per game so far this season, assuming he’ll play in 95 percent of his team’s remaining games. I did not consider players like the Indiana Pacers’ Paul George who have not played this year.Team ages are weighted based on projected wins added.To estimate a team’s chances of winning a title this year (2014-15), I used Hollinger’s playoff odds simulation. For the remaining seasons in the five-year window through 2018-19, I used the figures from our model instead.All projections are based on stats through Tuesday evening.One team is clearly ahead of the pack. It’s the Golden State Warriors.The Dubs project to win 0.95 championships between now and 2018-19. Some of that is because they’re the favorite to win the title this year, according to Hollinger’s method, with a 36 percent chance. But they also rate as the best bet to win the championship in each subsequent season through 2018-19.This isn’t rocket science: the Warriors are really good. They’re young — in fact, their average age has declined slightly from last year as older players like Andre Iguodala have come to play less important roles. And they have a superstar in Stephen Curry.Following the Warriors on the list:At No. 2, the Los Angeles Clippers. They’re not off to the start the Warriors are, and they’re a little older. But they have the talent they’ll need.At No. 3, the Cavaliers, who have a young core surrounding James, but who don’t yet look like they’ll stand head and shoulders above the pack as James’s teams did some years in Miami.At No. 4, the Toronto Raptors, another obvious choice. They’re young, Kyle Lowry is on the verge of being a superstar, and they have the benefit of playing in the Eastern Conference.8The model does not explicitly account for which conference a team plays in. It may account for it implicitly, however, because it uses W-L totals without adjusting for strength of schedule. It’s easier to win the same number of games with lesser talent in the Eastern Conference.At No. 5, the Houston Rockets, whose projection is largely unchanged from the end of last season despite a disappointing off-season.At No. 6, the Grizzlies. Note, however, that this year is probably their best hope of a championship drive. The roster is fairly old, and there’s not a true superstar to build around.At No. 7, the Pelicans. They haven’t gotten off to an especially strong start this year and have little shot of title contention this spring. But Davis has as bright a future as anyone in the league and the team’s average age (weighted by wins added) is just 23.6. They project to be the second- or third-best team in the league by the end of the five-year window, according to the model.At No. 8, the Portland Trail Blazers, whose numbers are similar to the Raptors across the board but who play in the tougher conference.At No. 9, the Chicago Bulls. Theirs is a decent projection, but the Bulls are older than you might think, and Derrick Rose hasn’t played like a superstar lately, even on the rare occasion he’s played. Instead, wins added thinks that Jimmy Butler is their best player.And at No. 10, the Thunder, whose projection has declined more than any other team since the end of last season. read more

Womens Soccer Ohio State ties 00 with No 21 Rutgers

Ohio State senior goalkeeper Devon Kerr (1) prepares to take a goal kick in the second half of the game against Florida Gulf Coast University on Sept. 7. Credit: Casey Cascaldo | Photo EditorThe Ohio State women’s soccer team (7-5-2, 4-2-2 Big Ten) drew a 0-0 tie with No. 21 Rutgers (9-1-5, 5-1-3 Big Ten) this Friday evening on alumni weekend at Jesse Owens Memorial Stadium.With neither team able to score in the first 45 minutes of the game, the score was tied 0-0 at the end of regulation. Rutgers finished the day with 20 total shots, but with only two shots on goal. Freshman forward Kayla Fischer, senior forward Eleanor Gabriel and senior midfielder Sarah Roberts combined for six of Ohio State’s eight total shots, with Fischer and Roberts each recording a shot on goal. Then, the Buckeyes and the Scarlet Knights went into overtime, but couldn’t find either opponents net. Rutgers freshman goalie Megan McClelland and Ohio State senior goalie Devon Kerr both ended the match with two saves and a pair of clean sheets.Last weekend, the Buckeyes fell 1-0 to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, but then won 1-0 in a match against the Spartans. The Buckeyes will look to come out on top against Maryland this Sunday at 2 p.m. when they return to Jesse Owens Memorial Stadium. read more

No victory for Eamonn Coghlan but the whole process excited him

first_imgCommenting on his controversial impersonation of a constituent during a TV3 debate, he said he couldn’t tell whether that had pushed him out of the running.“I’ll tell you, I’ve had some good interviews and some bad interviews and I’ll put that down to a bad interview,” he joked. “That was a week and a half ago – whether it affected me or not, I really don’t know.”https://vine.co/v/MwrTTLQ2AhpMinister Varadkar told reporters “it was a very hard day in which to be a Fine Gael candidate” and that Coghlan and his team should be proud of the result.“You know, this was an opportunity I think for the electorate to send the government a message,” he said. “They’ve sent the message that they’re hurting and that they’re not happy with a lot of the things the government has done.”Follow our liveblog this evening for all the latest results… Related: There are just 448 votes between the Socialists and Sinn Féin in Dublin West>More: What matters to the voters of Dublin West?> FINE GAEL CANDIDATE in the Dublin West by-election Eamonn Coghlan has said the campaign has been “a wonderful experience”, despite coming in sixth place with less than 4,000 votes.Sinn Féin’s candidate Paul Donnelly has topped the poll so far in first tally as Socialist Party councillor Ruth Coppinger follows close behind with 448 votes between the two.Speaking to reporters at the count centre, accompanied by Minister Leo Varadkar, Coghlan said he wasn’t disappointed at his loss. When asked if he plans to run in the next general election, the Fine Gael Senator indicated he will.“Having gone through this, it excited me and it excited me from the point of view that it gave me an opportunity to see how the community really came together in a big way on a voluntary basis – people who were’t really in politics at all, who were willing to come out and support Eamonn Coghlan,” he said. “So, that has excited me; I think I will dwell on this over the next two or three or four weeks and whenever the next general election is, perhaps in two years’ time, I’ll be giving it some serious thought.”Coghlan noted that “there was a huge anti-government sentiment out there that has been obviously noticable over the last number of months”.There’s been an awful lot of negative soundbites out there. People were certainly concerned about the water charges, the medical cards, the local property taxes, and the soundbites out there were really turning people towards anti-government sentiment.last_img read more

Hellenic police seize suspect parcels

first_img Facebook Twitter: @NeosKosmos Instagram Eight parcels, suspected of being booby-trapped, were intercepted by police authorities in Athens on Monday, at a post office sorting centre in Northern Attica. The packages were about to be dispatched to an array of multinational companies, individuals, and political authorities throughout the EU, not least among them Jeroen Dijsselbloem, President of the Eurogroup, according to some reports. Counter-terrorism authorities have been on the lookout since last week, when two booby-trapped parcels were sent from Greece to the German Finance Ministry and to the International Monetary Fund offices in Paris. The former, addressed to Wolfgang Schaeuble, was seized by German police, but the latter exploded, causing minor injuries to an administrative officer. According to sources, the packages stated Greek politicians as senders; authorities suspect an urban guerrilla group, the Conspiracy of Fire Cells, which claimed responsibility for the first booby-trapped parcel, although this has not yet been established.last_img read more

La Cnil autorise la reconnaissance de la frappe au clavier

first_imgLa Cnil autorise la reconnaissance de la frappe au clavierPour la première fois, la Commission nationale de l’informatique et des libertés (Cnil) a autorisé une société à étudier un dispositif de biométrie comportementale basé sur la reconnaissance de la frappe sur un clavier d’ordinateur. Pour l’heure, ces études ne sont autorisées qu’à des fins de démonstration.La Cnil a examiné un nouveau type de biométrie comportementale reposant sur la reconnaissance de la frappe au clavier. Et comme elle l’annonce dans un communiqué, elle a autorisé une société à développer cette technologie. Toutefois, précise la Cnil, ces travaux ne devront être menés qu’à “des fins de démonstration auprès de clients potentiels”. Le dispositif repose sur les variations de la durée séparant la frappe de deux touches du clavier au moment de la saisie d’un identifiant et d’un mot de passe. “Cette authentification vient donc s’ajouter à celle reposant sur le secret (identifiant/mot de passe) connu de l’utilisateur” explique le communiqué. À lire aussiDas Keyboard : le confort de frappe atteint les macCe type de biométrie comportementale ne nécessite aucun matériel particulier en dehors d’un clavier et d’un ordinateur bien sûr, et du logiciel de reconnaissance biométrique installé sur un serveur. Il pourrait être utilisé en complément des traditionnels identifiants et mots de passe, afin de renforcer l’authentification d’une personne. La Commission assure avoir été “particulièrement vigilante sur le risque de dispersion des données biométriques, que son origine en soit accidentelle ou malveillante”. La société évoquée, mais pas nommée, a apporté à la Cnil l’assurance qu’elle traitera uniquement les données de personnes volontaires. Des données qui seront supprimées à l’issue de la démonstration, souligne le communiqué.La Cnil a imposé trois conditions à la société qui développera cette biométrie : le résultat de l’analyse des données de frappe devra être chiffré, tandis que la base de données du démonstrateur sera hébergée par la société démonstratrice et non par un prestataire. Enfin, la société devra s’assurer qu’aucun logiciel ou dispositif matériel permettant d’enregistrer puis de simuler les caractéristiques de la frappe clavier d’une personne ne sera installé à son insu.Le 29 juillet 2011 à 15:47 • Maxime Lambertlast_img read more

Update standoff ends in Poway

first_img KUSI Newsroom, 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsPOWAY (KUSI) – An hours-long standoff ended Sunday afternoon after a man barricaded himself in a Poway building for much of the morning and early afternoon.The standoff was taking place at an apartment attached to a business on the 14000 block of Poway Road.The road was blocked off between Garden Road and Sudan Road. Authorities confirmed that no one was in danger.The Sheriff’s Department said SWAT and crisis negotiation teams were at the scene. The department also urged media and others not to post pictures or video that could endanger deputies.“Please do not put the lives of deputies at risk by posting video or photos of their positions LIVE on TV, web or social media during the incident,” the department said.Sheriff Lt. Dave Perkins confirmed that the  standoff had ended by about 1 p.m. No details on how the situation was resolved or identifying information on the suspect was immediately available. Posted: February 17, 2019 Updated: 6:30 PM February 17, 2019center_img Update: standoff ends in Poway KUSI Newsroom Categories: Local San Diego News FacebookTwitterlast_img read more

ASA to Inform Growers Through Series of Soybean Rust Education Meetings

first_imgThe American Soybean Association (ASA), a membership-driven policy organization representing 25,000 members, is presenting a series of seven one-day Soybean Rust Education meetings around the country that will help farmers in the United States be better informed about soybean rust and better prepared to deal with its eventual spread to the U.S. Without early detection and proper fungicide applications, soybean rust can cause yield losses of up to 80 percent, depending on the plant’s growth stage at infection.“Growers need to have a better understanding of how to properly manage this disease before it arrives, and ASA is committed to helping inform and prepare growers,” said ASA President Ron Heck, a soybean producer from Perry, Iowa. “The meetings will bring together ASA leaders, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) officials, scientists, industry representatives, and soybean growers to discuss the latest information about soybean rust.”At the rust education meetings, experts will talk about the approval status and registration of fungicide products to combat the disease in the U.S., discuss fungicide application techniques and equipment, and present identification and detection methods for soybean rust.The Soybean Rust Education meeting dates and locations are:July 21, 2004, Raleigh, N.C.July 22, 2004, Plain City, OhioJuly 23, 2004, Memphis, Tenn.July 27, 2004, Indianapolis, Ind.July 28, 2004, Fremont, Neb.July 29, 2004, Moline, Ill.July 30, 2004, Mankato, Minn.Registration for these meetings is free to current ASA members. A registration fee of $30.00 will be charged to non-members, which can be applied toward association membership. To register in advance for one of the meetings, go to www.SoyGrowers.com/rust for an online registration application, or contact ASA toll free at 800-688-7692. Continuing Education Units (CEUs) for meeting attendance have been applied for.ASA’s Soybean Rust Education series is conducted in cooperation with the USDA and is sponsored by BASF Corporation, Bayer CropScience, Dow AgroSciences, John Deere, Sipcam Agro USA and Syngenta Crop Protection.last_img read more

Brush Prairie kids get cooking

first_imgInstead of raiding the pantry for a convenient after-school snack, 11 Brush Prairie kids meet each Tuesday afternoon to learn about healthy cooking.Around 3 p.m. for the past three weeks, Xanna Burg, a nutrition educator with the Clark County Food Bank, has set up shop at the Rock Solid Community Teen Center for her eager students, who range from preteens to high school juniors. This week, she laid out the ingredients for macaroni and cheese infused with diced broccoli and a honey and peanut butter fruit dip on the side.“We’re going to compare the mac ‘n’ cheese we make to a boxed mac ‘n’ cheese and decide why ours is healthier,” Burg said. “Anything that you prepare that’s not from a box is going to have less salt. You’re going to know what’s going in it.”The class is a new venture for the food bank, which teaches a cooking class for adults on food stamps and budgets called Cooking Matters. This year, the staff decided to broaden its focus to a younger group with the new six-week class at Rock Solid, putting an emphasis on teaching the kids about nutrition and food security problems.“We know that a lot of these kids and a lot of people in general aren’t in ideal situations,” Burg said. “We strategically have targeted this population, hoping that we’re teaching them skills that later in life are going to decrease their dependence on food boxes.”Not all of the kids necessarily rely on food banks, said Gilda Ciraulo, the executive director of the community center. But regardless of their access to good food at home, the class gives the kids something constructive to do after school, she said.last_img read more